Goals Created and Points Per Shot Attempted

By JASON LOWENTHAL

Photo Credit: MJB Images

In our third installment on advanced analytics, we take a look at one measure of scoring production and one measure of scoring efficiency: goals created and points per shot attempted, respectively.

The goals created statistic was developed by the fine folks over at Hockey Reference and is used to measure scoring production by giving separate value to goals and assists. Currently, when measuring scoring production, we use the total points system (goals + assists). Although a spectacular pass may have set up the goal, most people argue that goals are more valuable. Therefore, the goals created metric gives one “point” for every goal scored, and one-half “points” for each assist. The entire formula looks like this:

Goals created (GC) = (goals + (0.5 x assists)) x (team goals / (team goals + (0.5 x team assists))

Now, the formula to figure out goals created obviously looks a little complicated. So, we’ll break it down into steps. Let’s first looks at the second half of the formula, the one with all the team-oriented numbers. Last season, the Steel scored 179 goals and had 263 assists as a team. Now we plug those numbers into the equation:

Team goals / (team goals + (0.5 x team assists)

179 / (179 + (0.5 x 263)

179 / (179 + 131.5)

.57648953

That number that we ended up with (.576) will be used to find the goals created of all the Steel players last season. We only need to figure out the “team” part of the equation one time. Now, we can move on to players.

Leading the team last season in scoring was C.J. Smith with 45 points. To reach those 45 points, he registered 27 goals and 18 assists. Therefore, the “player” part of the formula looks like this for Smith:

Goals + (0.5 x assists)

27 + (0.5 x 18)

36

By multiplying the two parts of the formula, we get one final number, goals created:

Goals created (Smith) = 36 x .57648953

Goals created (Smith) = 20.75

It just so happens that Smith was the team leader in points as well as goals created, although this is not always the case. For instance, Danny Fetzer ranked just ninth on the team last year in points, but finished tied for fifth in goals created. This is because he had more goals (16) than a handful of guys above him. Alec Vanko (9 goals), John Schilling (10), Robbie Payne (14), and Mason Bergh (11) all shared the puck more, which is not a bad thing, that is the reason why their goals created were less than Fetzer’s.

Simply put, goals created is just another scoring metric, but is one that gives a higher value to goals than assists. The one criticism is that the statistic benefits those who played in more games than others. Obviously, if a skater is on the ice more, he has a better chance of scoring than if he is on the bench.

Now we turn to scoring efficiency, which we will measure using points per shot attempted. Quality shot selection is one component that will help one’s point per shot attempted. If a player is firing from bad angles and allowing the goalie to make routine saves, their points per shot attempted will suffer. The formula is very easy. All you have to do is divide the player’s total points by their total number of shots. Last season’s overall leader on the Steel was John Ernsting (12 G, 29 A). Ernsting tallied 41 points on the season and registered 119 shots on net. Therefore, his points per shot attempted is:

Points per shot attempted (Ernsting) = points / shots

Points per shot attempted (Ernsting) = 41 / 119

Points per shot attempted (Ernsting) = .34

Trailing right behind Ernsting and leading Steel defensemen was Brian LeBlanc at .33 points per shot attempted. This means that both Ernsting and LeBlanc were responsible for approximately one-third of a point for every shot they each had last season. Or, if you want to look at it the other way, for every three shots Ernsting or LeBlanc had, they were responsible for one point.